Play it safe and lose no time or attack and falter? TdF 2012

Stage 11 cracked Evans, or rather he cracked himself. Or perhaps it was the plan that was flawed?

The team had a plan, presumably, or simply went with what they had. Let's just assume they planned it all. One teammate already up the road in the break, they sent another away, within striking distance of an attack by Evans. With that arrangement in place, Evans duly attacked. And all went well until Evans reached his teammates. Firstly his "fallback" guy faltered and then he himself went off the boil. Yes, the pace was already high, so Cadel's attack had to be overwhelming and sudden. And he was still a worryingly long way from the finish. The effort must have pushed him into the red... and when his 3-man BMC train became just 2 he looked the weaker of the pair. Suddenly the plan didn't look so good. Having expended that energy he then faltered again on the final climb.

Is he unwell? Or did he just overstep the line with the first attack, and paid the price later?

Some other observations: Wiggins looked exposed, both when Evans attacked and even more so when his own teammate, Froome, attacked! And both Rogers and Porte were visibly more tired. Coupled with Froome initially faltering and falling back before suddenly coming good again (which was bizarre in itself) it looks like we still have a race on our hands. Perhaps even Evans will now deserve a "good" day and succeed in one of his moves?

Tour De France 2012: Stage 11 Results | Cyclingnews.com

Sky's Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins were both there, as were Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) and Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol). However, defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) failed to stay with their pace.

Sagan wins, many lose. TdF 2012 smash-fest continues

If you've never been in the middle of a 200-strong peleton you can only imagine the eerie feeling. To describe it briefly, it's wonderful and scary in equal measure. It sucks you forward relentlessly, and on the flat you barely need to pedal. Rolling hills are no bother either, it's only when the road pitches sharply up that you need to do some serious work. But if you drift to the edges or the rear, or when the road turns sharply, beware. Changes of pace or direction are unsettling enough, but a narrowing road is worse. Suddenly what was a carefree bunch rolling along (unless you are doing the engine room work at the front, of course) becames a nervous monster. Everyone has to find a spot in a decreasing space. You can imagine what it's like if a rider touches the wheel ahead. Any sudden movement, unexpected braking or swerves around gravel or potholes can set off mayhem... even on a straight road.

Most of the time you just manage. Sometimes it all happens too fast. Tired riders, nervousness and a big peleton can equal big changes in the GC.

At least it frees a few riders up to attack and be let free. As long as Hesjedal doesn't get 10 or so minutes ahead he may be allowed to escape and win a stage. Maybe. I doubt they'll let Schleck or Gesink come back, but they'll sure try. Maybe even tomorrow. Could we even see Cancellara sacrifice his yellow jersey for a Kloden attack? And let Schleck roam free in a break? Or will they hold off such tactics until week 3?  

Video: BMC Remains Intact After Metz Mayhem | Cyclingnews.com

Ryder Hesjedal lost over 13 minutes, with Alejandro Valverde, Frank Schleck, Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink all crossing the line with less skin than they started with and more time in their general classification tally than before.

Le Tour 2012: how to lose at the start - or hey, it's only the prologue!

Perhaps this Tour was lost weeks ago, maybe even years ago. As I have your attention now (both of us, me and you) let me explain. Kinda.

This is the hypothesis: what goes around comes around. Simple. When things look extraterrestrial, maybe they are. It's not news to say that there are clouds hanging over some past performances at Le Tour (amongst other races) and - perhaps - it's all coming to a head. Or a beheading. There are riders and managers past and present hoping it all comes to nought. They may have nothing to fear but they still fear it in their bones. Or blood. It still has an effect. It rattles a few things, and focus is lost. And riders make mistakes, or lose form. And then there are aftershocks, pay disputes and general unhappiness. You know what I mean. Morale is damaged.

And there's more to the hypothesis, too: you are where you came from. Wiggins for example is a pursuit guy, a trackie used to smooth, fast velodromes. Yes, as are many other great road cyclists. But some of that basic training hangs around and whilst he's made a huge improvement on the road he still has to match the great descenders and tactical guys. Can he gain enough in the mountains and TTs to give up some time elsewhere?   

So what do I (club-level crit racer that I am) reckon the GC will look like in Paris? Well Wiggo, Evans and Menchov look good but you can't write Nibali out, either. Hesjedal? He'll give it a shot but his best tactic will be to look exhausted (from his Giro win), hang tough, stay close and pull out a surprise or 2 late in the race. But they all know to expect that. Wiggo, as I said, will take time in the mountains and TTs but may lose a bit to opportunists and descenders. Evans will just do what Evans does, hang in there, cling to Wiggo et al and just stay close enough to strike if he can. An opportunistic attack on a wet downhill may be his best tactic. However unless Wiggo cracks his strong TT will not be enough. He's not facing the Schlecks this time, is he? (Well not judging by Frank's performance so far - unless he has a miracle mountain ride up his sleeve.)

Of course it's a long race, of course anything can happen. To survive week one is hard enough, but then to attack or to match the attackers, that is the question. It may come down to who keeps the most energy and best form all the way through 4 weeks. It may depend on crashes, viruses, or one or 2 smart attacks on just the right days. Or it may play out exactly as expected. But I doubt it.  

So on with the show, this is it (summarised and commented, of course):

Tour De France 2012: Prologue Results | Cyclingnews.com

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 0:07:13  Expected but a pleasant surprise to see confirmation - he's back. Fabian will hang onto the yellow until it makes no more sense for him or the team. He's done good, but where are the 'Shack's GC guys?
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07 Expected. On form, done good. Used to be a TT specialist, despite obvious improvements elsewhere it remains to be seen how he copes with mountain descents in the wet, or the pressure of favoritism. Still, deserves to be the GC fave.
3 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Great ride, Chavanel will steal a stage or 2, surely?
4 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10 Again, rode out of his skin. A boost to BMC and a hopeful sign of strong support for GC man Evans.
5 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:11 Expected. Wiggins has support, too.
6 Brett Lancaster (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
7 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) Argos - Shimano 0:00:12 Perhaps unexpected? Obviously a good result.
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13 Expected. A welcome return to form, deserves a break this year. Must be counted for the GC podium in Paris.
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team Coming on strong at exactly the right time. Watch this space. Again a comfort to Evans to have another powerhouse on his side.
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:00:15 Expected.
11 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:16 Expected. Another Wiggo support man.
12 Peter Velits (Svk) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:17 Expected.
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team Expected. He's not a TT specialist, although he does great TTs, especially long ones. He's managed his loss to just a few seconds, so he's in the game.
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:18 Like Evans he's done his job. Expected. Wiggo-Evans-Menchov for the podium, Nibali a close 4th? Maybe. It's a cliche but it's true - anything can happen from here. Expect an exciting week 3 if these 4 are still on the same page.
15 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Sharp Expected. OK, make that 5. It's a tough call to expect Hesjedal to back up after his epic Giro, so I'll say "not this time".
16 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Sharp Expected.
17 Stephen Cummings (GBr) BMC Racing Team Great ride. More support for Cadel.
18 Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:19 Expected. Always there, isn't he? But he's not the 'Shack leader, is he? Maybe it's the next guy?
19 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan Expected. Definitely in the game and if he's called upon to race like a leader and gets the support he's got the class to surprise... but then again, it's a big ask at the wrong end of a famous career, so maybe not.
20 Nick Nuyens (Bel) Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank 0:00:20 Expected.
21 Michael Albasini (Swi) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
22 George Hincapie (USA) BMC Racing Team Expected and good to see Cadel's support around him after this short test. But it's the long game that matters.
skip a few
30 Tyler Farrar (USA) Garmin - Sharp Expected, but perhaps he should have been a few places higher. We shall see how he sprints.
skip some more
36 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected, but again he's not as far up as we might have hoped. Will have saved something for Wiggo's support in the mountains, I suspect.
skip again
41 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling Expected. But a good ride nonetheless. Makes it look a good contest between Cav and Farrar in the sprints, methinks.
43 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Belisol Team Expected. Make that a 3-way race for Green. 
45 Tony Martin (Ger) Omega Pharma-QuickStep A good ride but he should have won - a bike change drama slowed him down. Revenge will be sweet, later.
53 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas-Cannondale Oh dear, a bit less than expected. Missed a corner, pulled his foot? Whatever, he'll be back. Make it a 4-way race for Green.
61 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected. He's not a short TT guy and like Porte he'll be supporting Wiggo later.
69 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Sharp Not that far off but slower than expected.
80 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Omega Pharma-QuickStep First GC guy to miss a trick, perhaps, but he's really here to support VDB... but where's VDB? Still, it's a lot of time to lose in the prologue. 
87 Matthew Harley Goss (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team No GC ambitions but can Gossy match it with the 4 sprinters above him? We shall see.
90 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale Ouch. It's OK, he's a support guy for Nibali this year. Calm down. 
Skipping a few more
113 Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack-Nissan Obviously saving himself.
And the rest. They all have their jobs to do.

Oh, what about Frank? Theory A. is that he's fried after a strong run a month or so back. Theory B is that he's going to pull a surprise. Theory C is that he'll support Andreas instead. They are professionals, they'll get over the dramas. Or not. 

136
Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan. No chance from this far back, really, unless he is hiding stellar climbing form and cracks the lot of 'em in the mountains. It'll be fun to see him try, anyway. Or will he simply support Andreas?  

On to Stage 1, I guess.

Good, short summary by Millar on why Evans won

Worth a read. Not mind-blowing but incisive and concise nonetheless. Robert Millar was the Scottish climber who really should have won Le Tour but fell short. Life's like that, try and try again as you will but sometimes there's nothing more you can do. Luck can be a factor, as can the presence of another in-form GC guy who just has a better team or better prep. Millar's grasp of the issues makes it plain that the early know-it-all commentary that Cadel's team was wasting energy has a flip-side. But you knew that already, of course. 

Why Evans Beat The Schleck Brothers | Cyclingnews.com

In the end, confidence was probably the difference. The whole race, Cadel Evans looked like he was riding to win the Tour, while the Schleck brothers looked like they were trying not to lose.

FWIW I agree with Mia. And I reckon Cadel would, too

Not that I would presume to know Cadel Evans well enough - or at all - to imagine what he'd think. But I don't believe he'd be so self-opinionated as to back the vitriol that's been poured on Mia Freedman just because she's not prepared to label sportspeople as "heroes". Frankly, it's all about perspective. Athletes, sports personalities, whatever - they may be good, or even great at what they do, they may even inspire you in some way. And that's fantastic. In that way they can be seen as a personal hero - but as a national hero? Well, it's a stretch. Whilst I accept that sportspeople are prominent in Australia's recognised or 'popular' cultural pantheon, if you like, that may have a lot to do with our short history as colonisers here and our lack of knowledge - or recognition - of what came before the British invasion. In time we may well achieve more balance and recognition for others from a wider, more varied selection of fields.

Hopefully from here on we can embrace all achievements in any field and not over-emphasise sport - or Ned Kelly for that matter - over all else. Public holiday for winning Le Tour? I don't think so. However I think there's room here for celebrating Cadel's achievement and recognising that - as he himself has said - he's just a guy riding a bike. 

Cadel Evans - is he a hero? Mamamia

I think pursuing a life doing something you’re good at for the benefit of yourself is not heroic. It’s not a BAD thing, I’m not dissing Cadel (of course not!) but the idea that a sports person should be idolised because they can ride far or jump high or swim fast is, to me, a bit odd. I guess I’m just flagging the fact that if you do well in sport, the country and the media stop to worship you in a way that doesn’t happen to anyone else for doing anything else.

The abuse I received was instant and it continues, seemingly unabated. I have a pretty thick skin but by 8:15 I was in tears. I genuinely miscalculated the level of viciousness my comments (which I have made many times before) would provoke. My bad. Not for stating my opinion but perhaps for misreading the mood and the audience.

Many people have made the point that it’s great to have role models for kids to look up to, to encourage them to get on a bike or kick a ball. I agree absolutely. They’re certainly better role models than rappers or reality TV stars.

But I only wish other kinds of heroes would receive the same media and popular adulation, that kids could see that you could be wildly popular for helping others or doing something other than having a physical skill.

Unsurprisingly BMC team would like Evans to win again in 2012. Nice SMH story anyway

A lot is made of Cadel's age but - despite many falls and broken bones - he's in good health and - for a cyclist especially - he's not especially old at 34. It's not swimming or gymnastics, after all. And in some ways he has also been 'saved for later' by previous teams holding him back from even starting Le Tour; it's not as though he has ridden 16 of them after all. And older, more Grand-Tour-experienced riders like Hincapie and Voigt have shown that Grand Tours can be ridden at seemingly undiminished intensity until you are 38 or 39. Perhaps older. Ekimov comes to mind, too. I guess the Armstrong example also leaps to mind, in the sense that he didn't exactly make his body - and luck - work as well in his last year as he did during his seven straight wins. But how hungry was he, really, the second time around? And what physical effects did the 'retirement' have? Cadel OTOH has not retired and returned, and has just started winning at the Grand Tour level. So his motivation is strong. Personal experience tells me that racing after 40 - even at club level - gets more complicated. But there's little difference in performance between 34 and 35, or even 39, if you maintain a decent level.

BMC chief tipping Evans to go back-to-back in 2012

Evans told his guests at a BMC team celebration dinner on Sunday night that the seed for his desire to one day win the Tour was planted when he was 14 years old. That was in 1991, when he watched Spaniard Miguel Indurain beat American Greg LeMond to win the first of his five successive titles.

''I thought, 'Hey, one day that would be nice to ride that race, wouldn't it'?'' Evans told about 300 guests. ''Many years later, and many, many months, hours and years of hard work, here I am today. Having crossed the finish line on the Champs Elysees with this jersey is really something I can't quite believe.''

BMC chief tipping Evans to go back-to-back in 2012

John Lelangue says Australian is training 'like a junior'. Rupert Guinness reports from Paris.

John Lelangue, the chief sporting director of Cadel Evans's BMC team, says the Australian Tour de France champion could top his remarkable achievement by returning to win cycling's most prestigious race for a second time next year.

Sunderland makes good sense in his analysis of the 2011 TdF GC riders

Stage 4 was clearly another short but fierce climb at the end of a punishing stage, one that would sort out the GC guys from the rest - at least by a few seconds. And as expected, Gilbert and Evans were there, their teams making it so by working together in the inevitable chase and final launch. No-one was surprised either to see Contador try to steal some time, although it was a little surprising to see him unable to accelerate into a gap like he usually does. Perhaps the Giro really did take it's toll? Or is he holding back? But in the end it was Evans who had to overcome mechanical adversity, get back to the front and take a gritty win. In so doing he stamped some further authority on himself and his BMC team.

Not forgeting Hushovd's amazing feat in hanging onto the skinny guy's wheels up a wall!

Whilst it's still early days, here's a nice, fair overall analysis by Scott Sunderland from today's SMH:   

This time Evans can win, says his spoiler

''Cadel is a very strong time triallist, and a very good climber - the third asset he's got is his positioning [in the bunch]. And in the stages before the mountains he can still do something. We've seen in the classics that he is a bit above Schleck and Contador there … the only thing he is missing is the accelerating speed and power that Schleck and Contador have in the mountains. If he can be calm and reserved and the team and management can protect him, then in the third week when it comes down to attrition, they won't be able to ride away from him.''

Crash splits field, GC leaders wait for Contador... uh, maybe not this time

Of course it's different if you drop a chain or make a clumsy, newbie gear-change, then you are expected to wait, aren't you? But if a spectator brings half the field down then it's open slather, apparently. (Armstrong proved that in '99.) And of course Cancellara didn't call a "too dangerous" truce this time either. That nit-picking aside, it's sad to see the competition for stage honours reduced in such a way, let alone Contador losing over a minute. And no I'm not a fan of waiting for riders who have made their own mistakes, but it's a fine line that gets drawn sometimes and a difficult one to be certain about. That's bike racing.

I still don't think the pure sprinters had a chance but a few of the more experienced hands would have played things differently had they been able to get up the front, post-crash. Mind you, Hushovd had a dig, unlike Boonen, Cavendish, Renshaw and Goss who seemed to hit the wall somewhat. At least they were there. Can't blame Greipel, he did a ton of work for Gilbert. In the end it was Lotto's protected rider doing what he does on a hill like this, and Cadel Evans pretty well doing what he does best as well - grinding it out steadily up a hill at a pace few can match. If there had been another 100m to go then Evans may well have passed Gilbert, but it's all in the timing, ain't it?

Tour De France: Stage 1, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

when they realised that Contador wasn’t among them, they showed no mercy, driving the group and quickly carving out a forty-second advantage. Behind, Contador seemed isolated.

Evans waits and wins Stage 6, and Simon Clarke hangs on to some classy wheels

A nice win by Evans but whilst the Italians were doing their best to smash each other it's also notable that Simon Clarke was still there in that same lead bunch... and there are some classy riders behind him.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

Cadel Evans (BMC) took advantage of the internecine rivalry between Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) on the final climb to Macerata to strengthen his command of Tirreno-Adriatico. The Australian watched as the Italian pair shut one another down in the finale and then unleashed a devastating acceleration of his own to take a resounding stage victory and consolidate his overall lead.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

Riders of the calibre of Andy Schleck and Fabian Cancellara (Leopard Trek) were among those deposited unceremoniously out of the back once the road pitched upwards, but it was at the front end of the race where the real drama took place.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

1 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 4:37:58
2 Giovanni Visconti (Ita) Farnese Vini - Neri Sottoli
3 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale
5 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale
6 Wout Poels (Ned) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
7 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone
8 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto
10 Tiago Machado (Por) Team RadioShack
11 Rinaldo Nocentini (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale
12 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Katusha Team
13 Simon Clarke (Aus) Pro Team Astana
14 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Sky Procycling 0:00:09
15 Marco Pinotti (Ita) HTC-Highroad
16 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:00:11

SBS: Cycling Central : Evans grabs gutsy Tirreno-Adriatico stage win

Evans went into the penultimate stage with just a 02sec lead on Italy's Ivan Basso (Liquigas), and, riding into the finish after strong support from his BMC team, found himself facing several attacks late in the 178km stage from Ussita to Macerata.

The Australian, however, fought back every time a gap opened up, and even had to deal with some elbow argy-bargy in the final kilometre with former teammate Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto), before pulling away from a select group in the final few hundred metres.

Haussler kicks himself for missing out when most kneeded (pun intended). And for Hushovd, what a way to make your season.

Now that was like a real race. One moment the sprinters were in and then they were out. Gilbert made his expected bold bid but too far out; yet it wasn't his fault - where else could he attack? And when it looked like a faltering Gilbert would get caught by the defending champion, they were all swallowed up by the dropped yet regrouped riders instead. And when the name "Hushovd" was seen to be included in the re-combined front group - well the obvious was about to happen, and it did.

I bet Haussler was kicking himself for racing too soon on that crook knee.  

UCI Road World Championships: Elite Men Road Race, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

It was a course for the tough sprinter; a man made of iron that could get over the climbs and launch a brutal uphill sprint: enter Thor Hushovd (Norway). The final sprint in Geelong, Australia was perfectly suited to the Norwegian rider and with a clear run down the left hand barrier, Hushovd secured a year in the rainbow colours of UCI Road World Champion.

Aussie 1-2 in Olympic test TT

What does it mean? Not a lot. Evans was 2nd in the test RR and now Evans and Rogers are 1 and 2 in the test TT. Against good but not the best competition. As a result it shows little but as a test of how Beijing will cope with the road cycling events it's a step forward. The Aussies weer there to test the facilities and scope the course, so it's job done. It at least means they know the course more intimately than the likely top-flight competition.

CN reports here on the 23km TT.