Le Tour 2012: how to lose at the start - or hey, it's only the prologue!

Perhaps this Tour was lost weeks ago, maybe even years ago. As I have your attention now (both of us, me and you) let me explain. Kinda.

This is the hypothesis: what goes around comes around. Simple. When things look extraterrestrial, maybe they are. It's not news to say that there are clouds hanging over some past performances at Le Tour (amongst other races) and - perhaps - it's all coming to a head. Or a beheading. There are riders and managers past and present hoping it all comes to nought. They may have nothing to fear but they still fear it in their bones. Or blood. It still has an effect. It rattles a few things, and focus is lost. And riders make mistakes, or lose form. And then there are aftershocks, pay disputes and general unhappiness. You know what I mean. Morale is damaged.

And there's more to the hypothesis, too: you are where you came from. Wiggins for example is a pursuit guy, a trackie used to smooth, fast velodromes. Yes, as are many other great road cyclists. But some of that basic training hangs around and whilst he's made a huge improvement on the road he still has to match the great descenders and tactical guys. Can he gain enough in the mountains and TTs to give up some time elsewhere?   

So what do I (club-level crit racer that I am) reckon the GC will look like in Paris? Well Wiggo, Evans and Menchov look good but you can't write Nibali out, either. Hesjedal? He'll give it a shot but his best tactic will be to look exhausted (from his Giro win), hang tough, stay close and pull out a surprise or 2 late in the race. But they all know to expect that. Wiggo, as I said, will take time in the mountains and TTs but may lose a bit to opportunists and descenders. Evans will just do what Evans does, hang in there, cling to Wiggo et al and just stay close enough to strike if he can. An opportunistic attack on a wet downhill may be his best tactic. However unless Wiggo cracks his strong TT will not be enough. He's not facing the Schlecks this time, is he? (Well not judging by Frank's performance so far - unless he has a miracle mountain ride up his sleeve.)

Of course it's a long race, of course anything can happen. To survive week one is hard enough, but then to attack or to match the attackers, that is the question. It may come down to who keeps the most energy and best form all the way through 4 weeks. It may depend on crashes, viruses, or one or 2 smart attacks on just the right days. Or it may play out exactly as expected. But I doubt it.  

So on with the show, this is it (summarised and commented, of course):

Tour De France 2012: Prologue Results | Cyclingnews.com

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 0:07:13  Expected but a pleasant surprise to see confirmation - he's back. Fabian will hang onto the yellow until it makes no more sense for him or the team. He's done good, but where are the 'Shack's GC guys?
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07 Expected. On form, done good. Used to be a TT specialist, despite obvious improvements elsewhere it remains to be seen how he copes with mountain descents in the wet, or the pressure of favoritism. Still, deserves to be the GC fave.
3 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Great ride, Chavanel will steal a stage or 2, surely?
4 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10 Again, rode out of his skin. A boost to BMC and a hopeful sign of strong support for GC man Evans.
5 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:11 Expected. Wiggins has support, too.
6 Brett Lancaster (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
7 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) Argos - Shimano 0:00:12 Perhaps unexpected? Obviously a good result.
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13 Expected. A welcome return to form, deserves a break this year. Must be counted for the GC podium in Paris.
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team Coming on strong at exactly the right time. Watch this space. Again a comfort to Evans to have another powerhouse on his side.
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:00:15 Expected.
11 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:16 Expected. Another Wiggo support man.
12 Peter Velits (Svk) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:17 Expected.
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team Expected. He's not a TT specialist, although he does great TTs, especially long ones. He's managed his loss to just a few seconds, so he's in the game.
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:18 Like Evans he's done his job. Expected. Wiggo-Evans-Menchov for the podium, Nibali a close 4th? Maybe. It's a cliche but it's true - anything can happen from here. Expect an exciting week 3 if these 4 are still on the same page.
15 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Sharp Expected. OK, make that 5. It's a tough call to expect Hesjedal to back up after his epic Giro, so I'll say "not this time".
16 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Sharp Expected.
17 Stephen Cummings (GBr) BMC Racing Team Great ride. More support for Cadel.
18 Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:19 Expected. Always there, isn't he? But he's not the 'Shack leader, is he? Maybe it's the next guy?
19 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan Expected. Definitely in the game and if he's called upon to race like a leader and gets the support he's got the class to surprise... but then again, it's a big ask at the wrong end of a famous career, so maybe not.
20 Nick Nuyens (Bel) Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank 0:00:20 Expected.
21 Michael Albasini (Swi) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
22 George Hincapie (USA) BMC Racing Team Expected and good to see Cadel's support around him after this short test. But it's the long game that matters.
skip a few
30 Tyler Farrar (USA) Garmin - Sharp Expected, but perhaps he should have been a few places higher. We shall see how he sprints.
skip some more
36 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected, but again he's not as far up as we might have hoped. Will have saved something for Wiggo's support in the mountains, I suspect.
skip again
41 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling Expected. But a good ride nonetheless. Makes it look a good contest between Cav and Farrar in the sprints, methinks.
43 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Belisol Team Expected. Make that a 3-way race for Green. 
45 Tony Martin (Ger) Omega Pharma-QuickStep A good ride but he should have won - a bike change drama slowed him down. Revenge will be sweet, later.
53 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas-Cannondale Oh dear, a bit less than expected. Missed a corner, pulled his foot? Whatever, he'll be back. Make it a 4-way race for Green.
61 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected. He's not a short TT guy and like Porte he'll be supporting Wiggo later.
69 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Sharp Not that far off but slower than expected.
80 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Omega Pharma-QuickStep First GC guy to miss a trick, perhaps, but he's really here to support VDB... but where's VDB? Still, it's a lot of time to lose in the prologue. 
87 Matthew Harley Goss (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team No GC ambitions but can Gossy match it with the 4 sprinters above him? We shall see.
90 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale Ouch. It's OK, he's a support guy for Nibali this year. Calm down. 
Skipping a few more
113 Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack-Nissan Obviously saving himself.
And the rest. They all have their jobs to do.

Oh, what about Frank? Theory A. is that he's fried after a strong run a month or so back. Theory B is that he's going to pull a surprise. Theory C is that he'll support Andreas instead. They are professionals, they'll get over the dramas. Or not. 

136
Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan. No chance from this far back, really, unless he is hiding stellar climbing form and cracks the lot of 'em in the mountains. It'll be fun to see him try, anyway. Or will he simply support Andreas?  

On to Stage 1, I guess.

Peleton skills 101: ride in the middle or the edge? The back or the front? Leipheimer surfs the guardrail

It's the little details that I like, post-race. What actually happened to Levi? Well he was back too far and on the edge, trying to take his opportunities to move forward. Now if you pick your moment this can be fine - but get it wrong and you pay.

If you are a TdF newbie or have simply never ridden in a large peleton then it's possibly not clear how difficult all of this can be. Deep inside the peleton is warmer, faster and easier - it sucks you along. But it's nervous spot, too. You can't move left or right and there's always someone in front and behind. Getting out of the middle to do anything, be it attack, counter or take 'a natural' involves a lot of work. And if one guy falls, you all go down. So you want teammates around you or 'safe hands' at least and you want to be up the front so you can avoid dramas. Now whilst you may want to be up the front all of the time so does everyone else, and a pecking order develops with special skills employed to enable you to out-compete the others. Sometimes you simply follow a known front-runner and hang on grimly. Other times your team mates take you forward. Or you just give in and make the best of it.

If you are a known rider it may be easier, or harder, depending upon who you need to pass. Risks are taken, and riding on the edge may be the only way to get ahead. And if you are making your way forward just when the peleton gets squeezed by a narrowing road then you have few choices. You ride the grass, accelerate into a gap or drop back - if you can. And if you simply get caught out then you cross your fingers and hope for the best. It may mean a bunny-hop over a gutter or some cross-country work, or a fall. Levi took the fall this time.   

Leipheimer Loses Time In Crash | Cyclingnews.com

"You just try to shoot through some gaps and one time, it closed up on me, and I was pinned against the guardrail. I kind of surfed the guardrail for 20 metres. Thankfully that slowed me down.

"Eventually the guardrail ended, and then I fell onto the ground. It didn't do anything. I scraped my elbow a little bit. Compared to yesterday's crashes, that's nothing."

For some reason I feel awfully sad about those 4 seconds. Cunego was meant to win this time, surely?

It's something about the company he keeps, I guess. I used to like Leipheimer's style and I guess I still do... a bit. But to my mind Cunego should have taken it. Just one of those feelings I guess.

Leipheimer snatches Tour de Suisse victory from Cunego : Cycling Central on SBS

Levi Leipheimer stole overall victory on the final day of the Tour de Suisse with a strong performance in the ninth stage, a 32.1km time trial won by Fabian Cancellara.

Speculation and all that: Leaping Levi to Lotto?

Well there are plenty of good riders up for grabs, and they may be prepared to bargain... but why would Predictor-Lotto suddenly have the wherewithal to grab a rider of Levi's quality? Is it for real? If so, it makes some sense, in that old 1-2 fashion. Can they afford 3 stars? Will they let someone go? Hmmm.

From CN: Belgium-based squad Predictor-Lotto is interested in having the signature of American Levi Leipheimer, third in the recent edition of the Tour de France. The 33 year-old is looking for a new team after it was announced that current team Discovery Channel will be folding its operations at the end of 2007.

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 21 - Bennati wins in Paris

Daniele Bennati took his 2nd Tour win just days after his first, and in the best place, too: Paris. Lampre deserved the win today after attacking and chasing so hard for Ballan, so it was somehow fitting that Quickstep, having done little to motivate the stage should accidentally lead Bennati out to the win. Boonen didn't seem to have the legs today, or was playing safe with the green jersey, just doing enough to keep it on his shoulders. Either way he didn't get to grips with his lead-out man and slipped away to 5th. Unless of course it was a cunning plan to allow Bennati the win, robbing his closer rivals of the opportunity to take maximum points...

Overall no-one threatened Contador for the win, and he took that an the best young rider. Cadel Evans took 2nd, as expected, and Leipheimer was content to stand on the podium in 3rd. It could all have been so very different had there not been several key casualties, both via accident and doping scandal. Still, this is a long race at high speed in difficult circumstances, and it wouldn't be special if winning it was straightforward, would it?

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 20 - Oh for 23 secs

It went pretty much as we all expected, although Levi got closer to Cadel than was comfy, and Alberto held on slightly better than expected - oh for those extra seconds! Still, after surviving a tour like this one it's fitting thatthe top 3 are so close, and that they have such a margin on Sastre in 4th.

Traditionally we just see a parade followed by an all-out sprint in the last stage, but we also recall Vinokourov's non-sprinter's move in 2005... so will Evans be tempted to go for a flyer? It looks like Levi has called a truce and accepted 3rd, so maybe not. If Discovery do move for a 1-2 finish then all bets are off, but surely they'll be happy with 1st and 3rd on GC? I guess that slight element of doubt will plague us all for another day...

Oh for the want of 14 seconds...

Dramatic, exciting, close and maybe even a touch dangerous.... what more could you want? The Dauphine Libere pulled some surprises this year. Moreau on Ventoux. Haussler's sprint. Astana's broad strength. And not only did Moreau get the GC, we had a dramatic final stage where Leipheimer got away, only to crash, leaving Vino alone to win the stage. And overall it was Cadel Evans just 14 secs back from the winner.

Meanwhile in Switzerland Zabel is flying! Another stage win, with a Cat 3 col taking the sting out of McEwen's legs. Bring on Le Tour!

And Ben Day won Beauce on GC in what was an impressive defensive action by the Navigators squad.