Down but not out - first Wiggo, now Sutton hit in UK traffic

It can happen anywhere. I don't know how it happened, but it happened. I used to ride at the other end of the St George bunch from Shane, hanging on grimly or chasing back on, and whilst he was always a volatile guy he wasn't stupid. Accidents happen. Road design aside, it's vital that all riders, pedestrians and drivers are careful, awake amd aware out there.

British Cycling coach Shane Sutton hospitalized after collision with auto

Commenting on the bizarre timing of the two accidents, British Cycling wrote, “”It is extremely rare that our riders and coaches are hurt while out cycling on the road, even rarer that two incidents should occur in a short space of time, and we wish Shane and Bradley a speedy recovery.”

The federation also called on the government to put cycling “at the heart of transport policy to ensure that cycle safety is built into the design of all new roads, junctions and transport projects, rather than being an afterthought.”

All or nothing for Cav and the Brits - and thus they choose nothing

Well it was certainly an interesting race. No radios, small teams, narrow roads and tactics as plain as the nose on Postman Pat's face (my kids like to think Wiggo looks like Postman Pat. Not sure who's the black and white cat, though). Unsurprisingly it all went exactly as expected - everyone attacked the Brits, yet the Brits stuck resolutely, doggedly, determinedly to Plan A. Get Cavendish to the line, first.

So what went wrong? Well David Millar reckons it was Cav's fault, basically, although he didn't say that exactly:  

Millar Left With No Complaints Despite Cavendish Missing Olympic Gold | Cyclingnews.com

With 50 kilometres to race and just one ascent of Box Hill remaining, the British seemed in control. A break had gone clear but after over five hours of racing, the gap was less than one minute as legs began to tire. However new impetus was added when a second contingent of riders attacked on the climb to create a 33-man group.

"We were always working at Mark's pace, so we couldn't react to those things and that was never our plan," said Cavendish's teammate David Millar.

The British team had been clear over its race strategy, telegraphing its tactics in a press conference last week. It was all for Cavendish, with David Brailsford saying, the sprinter was "plan A and all the rest of the letters of the alphabet," too.

My emphasis there, but I would deduce from that quote that Cav's pace wasn't ideal, then?

So what did Cav think went wrong?

Cavendish Misses Olympic Glory In Men's Road Race | Cyclingnews.com

"We did everything we could. The crowd was tremendous the whole way around, but the Aussies just raced negatively. The team were incredible. They left everything out on the road. I am so proud of them. We didn't expect any help. We rode the race we wanted to ride. We couldn't pull the group back on Box Hill. Other teams were content that if they didn't win, we wouldn't win. We expected it. If you want to win, you've to take it to them."

My emphasis, again. It wasn't Cav's fault, nor his one-idea Team of champions. It was the Aussies. Having O'Grady orchestrating the first break and coming, umm, 6th, plus Rogers trying his own attack was clearly not a positive in Mark's eyes, who came, umm, 29th.

And the truth? Well there is more than a little truth in the other teams wanting to negate the Manxman's sprint and thus being prepared to leave their own sprinters stranded, waiting for the Brits to close the gap. But they all wanted a medal, too. Trouble was, no-one wanted to tow Cav (and Greipel) up to the front so they can fight it out for 1st and 2nd, either. It was a stalemate.

And good on Vino for attacking and closing his checkered yet always interesting career with Olympic gold.      

Play it safe and lose no time or attack and falter? TdF 2012

Stage 11 cracked Evans, or rather he cracked himself. Or perhaps it was the plan that was flawed?

The team had a plan, presumably, or simply went with what they had. Let's just assume they planned it all. One teammate already up the road in the break, they sent another away, within striking distance of an attack by Evans. With that arrangement in place, Evans duly attacked. And all went well until Evans reached his teammates. Firstly his "fallback" guy faltered and then he himself went off the boil. Yes, the pace was already high, so Cadel's attack had to be overwhelming and sudden. And he was still a worryingly long way from the finish. The effort must have pushed him into the red... and when his 3-man BMC train became just 2 he looked the weaker of the pair. Suddenly the plan didn't look so good. Having expended that energy he then faltered again on the final climb.

Is he unwell? Or did he just overstep the line with the first attack, and paid the price later?

Some other observations: Wiggins looked exposed, both when Evans attacked and even more so when his own teammate, Froome, attacked! And both Rogers and Porte were visibly more tired. Coupled with Froome initially faltering and falling back before suddenly coming good again (which was bizarre in itself) it looks like we still have a race on our hands. Perhaps even Evans will now deserve a "good" day and succeed in one of his moves?

Tour De France 2012: Stage 11 Results | Cyclingnews.com

Sky's Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins were both there, as were Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) and Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol). However, defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) failed to stay with their pace.

All hail Team Sky. But is Cyclingnews now talking in code? TdF 2012

OK, Wiggins and Froome have set the pace in the mountains and the time trial, indeed they have dominated. But "on another sphere"? It's not a great choice of words, is it? Especially after Wiggins has just so emphatically countered his "anonymous" doubters at a press conference. It's OK on its own, isolated from its context, but anyone who has followed the sport since, say, 2006 or so knows that any reference to other-worldly performances is shorthand for "assisted". Either Cyclingnews is just ignorant of this - possibly - or are grinding an axe of some sort. Oh well. For the record, there is no evidence of untoward activity, just great sport science, hard work and years of planning and training.

Evans's Tour Defence Suffers First Setback | Cyclingnews.com

In spite of his losses in the overall classification, Evans looked to take solace from the fact that he had fared admirably against the pure time triallists, but it won't have escaped his attention that the Sky pair of Wiggins and Chris Froome – first and second on the stage – were on another sphere to the rest of the field.

I.B., The Extra Terrestrial? | Cyclingnews.com

Simoni: "I've never seen anyone dominate [like Basso], never seen any one that strong! He seems like an extra-terrestrial," Simoni said post-stage, his face and words minced with bitterness. Whether the Trentino scalatore was implying Basso was 'assisted' in some way is up for speculation, but Basso wasn't happy when he heard this: "I don't like to be called an extra-terrestrial or a phenomenon," he said.

Yes, Basso later served a suspension for "attempting" to dope.

And whereto from here for Le Tour 2012? Well it's quite a change from last year, where Evans waited until the final TT to take control. You couldn't really wait any longer, in fact. And whilst it looks like a poor tactic for Wiggins and Sky to take yellow so early - week one, after all - it's not bad for team and individual morale, is it? Wiggins has only just won his first stage, after all, and leading Le Tour is something most riders would find hard to knock back. And whilst Team Sky now need to expend additional energy in controlling dangerous attacks and protecting both Wiggins and Froome,  BMC themselves expended a lot of energy in acting as though they were "in yellow" last year. Basically it may be hard but it's doable.

OTOH last year other teams with shorter-term ambitions shared responsibility with BMC for keeping control of breakaways and the like. And whilst the Schlecks (and to some extent Contador) knew they had to take time off Evans in the mountains, Evans himself only had to limit losses and win it back in the last TT. So whilst it looks bad for Evans that already his losses have mounted up, coming about despite his strengths in the TT and prologue, this isn't last year. He must have expected something like this scenario, given recent peformance. So either it really is bad and he has little hope of recovering this amount of time, or he has a plan to address the gap. So which one?

As I said, this isn't 2011, so throw that thought out. But Sky has the box seat here, a big lead with Wiggins and a strong wild card to play in Froome. Most likely Wiggins will be able to match all attacks - and there will be many, as the likes of Nibali and Menchov are just as desperate to win as Evans, and both the RadioShack and Lotto teams have some GC gas in the tank, too. But it may expose weaknesses. It could be that Wiggins gets isolated - unlikely, I know - and loses time on a descent. But he has time up his sleeve, doesn't he. And if he or his team really falters then sending Froome up the road will cure the situation. If they are having trouble defending, why not attack?

It is a long way from from Paris and a tough job to defend from here. But Sky must have thought this through and they must see it as their "Plan A". Equally Evans and Nibali must have expected this scenario, too, so they will be executing their own tactics in the Alps to come. With the Pyrenees in week 3 to consolidate. I expect fireworks and I expect that whoever gets the advantage in week 2 will then have the same problem as Sky has now - how do you defend all the way from here to Paris?

So, fireworks in the Alps, yes, particularly Stage 11 - but with care. Whilst they don't want to leave it too late, they don't want to take control too early, either. But if they do, they'll want it to be a crushing blow that sinks Sky's ship all the way to Paris. Anything less will lead to a win for Sky. And it doesn't need to be a win for Wiggins. 
      

Le Tour 2012: how to lose at the start - or hey, it's only the prologue!

Perhaps this Tour was lost weeks ago, maybe even years ago. As I have your attention now (both of us, me and you) let me explain. Kinda.

This is the hypothesis: what goes around comes around. Simple. When things look extraterrestrial, maybe they are. It's not news to say that there are clouds hanging over some past performances at Le Tour (amongst other races) and - perhaps - it's all coming to a head. Or a beheading. There are riders and managers past and present hoping it all comes to nought. They may have nothing to fear but they still fear it in their bones. Or blood. It still has an effect. It rattles a few things, and focus is lost. And riders make mistakes, or lose form. And then there are aftershocks, pay disputes and general unhappiness. You know what I mean. Morale is damaged.

And there's more to the hypothesis, too: you are where you came from. Wiggins for example is a pursuit guy, a trackie used to smooth, fast velodromes. Yes, as are many other great road cyclists. But some of that basic training hangs around and whilst he's made a huge improvement on the road he still has to match the great descenders and tactical guys. Can he gain enough in the mountains and TTs to give up some time elsewhere?   

So what do I (club-level crit racer that I am) reckon the GC will look like in Paris? Well Wiggo, Evans and Menchov look good but you can't write Nibali out, either. Hesjedal? He'll give it a shot but his best tactic will be to look exhausted (from his Giro win), hang tough, stay close and pull out a surprise or 2 late in the race. But they all know to expect that. Wiggo, as I said, will take time in the mountains and TTs but may lose a bit to opportunists and descenders. Evans will just do what Evans does, hang in there, cling to Wiggo et al and just stay close enough to strike if he can. An opportunistic attack on a wet downhill may be his best tactic. However unless Wiggo cracks his strong TT will not be enough. He's not facing the Schlecks this time, is he? (Well not judging by Frank's performance so far - unless he has a miracle mountain ride up his sleeve.)

Of course it's a long race, of course anything can happen. To survive week one is hard enough, but then to attack or to match the attackers, that is the question. It may come down to who keeps the most energy and best form all the way through 4 weeks. It may depend on crashes, viruses, or one or 2 smart attacks on just the right days. Or it may play out exactly as expected. But I doubt it.  

So on with the show, this is it (summarised and commented, of course):

Tour De France 2012: Prologue Results | Cyclingnews.com

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 0:07:13  Expected but a pleasant surprise to see confirmation - he's back. Fabian will hang onto the yellow until it makes no more sense for him or the team. He's done good, but where are the 'Shack's GC guys?
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07 Expected. On form, done good. Used to be a TT specialist, despite obvious improvements elsewhere it remains to be seen how he copes with mountain descents in the wet, or the pressure of favoritism. Still, deserves to be the GC fave.
3 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Great ride, Chavanel will steal a stage or 2, surely?
4 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10 Again, rode out of his skin. A boost to BMC and a hopeful sign of strong support for GC man Evans.
5 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:11 Expected. Wiggins has support, too.
6 Brett Lancaster (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
7 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) Argos - Shimano 0:00:12 Perhaps unexpected? Obviously a good result.
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13 Expected. A welcome return to form, deserves a break this year. Must be counted for the GC podium in Paris.
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team Coming on strong at exactly the right time. Watch this space. Again a comfort to Evans to have another powerhouse on his side.
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:00:15 Expected.
11 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:16 Expected. Another Wiggo support man.
12 Peter Velits (Svk) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:17 Expected.
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team Expected. He's not a TT specialist, although he does great TTs, especially long ones. He's managed his loss to just a few seconds, so he's in the game.
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:18 Like Evans he's done his job. Expected. Wiggo-Evans-Menchov for the podium, Nibali a close 4th? Maybe. It's a cliche but it's true - anything can happen from here. Expect an exciting week 3 if these 4 are still on the same page.
15 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Sharp Expected. OK, make that 5. It's a tough call to expect Hesjedal to back up after his epic Giro, so I'll say "not this time".
16 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Sharp Expected.
17 Stephen Cummings (GBr) BMC Racing Team Great ride. More support for Cadel.
18 Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:19 Expected. Always there, isn't he? But he's not the 'Shack leader, is he? Maybe it's the next guy?
19 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan Expected. Definitely in the game and if he's called upon to race like a leader and gets the support he's got the class to surprise... but then again, it's a big ask at the wrong end of a famous career, so maybe not.
20 Nick Nuyens (Bel) Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank 0:00:20 Expected.
21 Michael Albasini (Swi) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
22 George Hincapie (USA) BMC Racing Team Expected and good to see Cadel's support around him after this short test. But it's the long game that matters.
skip a few
30 Tyler Farrar (USA) Garmin - Sharp Expected, but perhaps he should have been a few places higher. We shall see how he sprints.
skip some more
36 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected, but again he's not as far up as we might have hoped. Will have saved something for Wiggo's support in the mountains, I suspect.
skip again
41 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling Expected. But a good ride nonetheless. Makes it look a good contest between Cav and Farrar in the sprints, methinks.
43 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Belisol Team Expected. Make that a 3-way race for Green. 
45 Tony Martin (Ger) Omega Pharma-QuickStep A good ride but he should have won - a bike change drama slowed him down. Revenge will be sweet, later.
53 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas-Cannondale Oh dear, a bit less than expected. Missed a corner, pulled his foot? Whatever, he'll be back. Make it a 4-way race for Green.
61 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected. He's not a short TT guy and like Porte he'll be supporting Wiggo later.
69 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Sharp Not that far off but slower than expected.
80 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Omega Pharma-QuickStep First GC guy to miss a trick, perhaps, but he's really here to support VDB... but where's VDB? Still, it's a lot of time to lose in the prologue. 
87 Matthew Harley Goss (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team No GC ambitions but can Gossy match it with the 4 sprinters above him? We shall see.
90 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale Ouch. It's OK, he's a support guy for Nibali this year. Calm down. 
Skipping a few more
113 Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack-Nissan Obviously saving himself.
And the rest. They all have their jobs to do.

Oh, what about Frank? Theory A. is that he's fried after a strong run a month or so back. Theory B is that he's going to pull a surprise. Theory C is that he'll support Andreas instead. They are professionals, they'll get over the dramas. Or not. 

136
Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan. No chance from this far back, really, unless he is hiding stellar climbing form and cracks the lot of 'em in the mountains. It'll be fun to see him try, anyway. Or will he simply support Andreas?  

On to Stage 1, I guess.

McGee getting closer in 4km pursuit

It's World Track Cycling Champs time, not that you'd know it here in Australia, our media dominated by the vastly smaller sport of pool-based swimming. I've got nothing against the activity itself but surely we can do better than watch a small group of elite swimming nations go up and down their lanes in high-tech buoyancy suits? OK, cycling is elitist and expensive itself at the top end, but cycling is also the cheapest form of wheeled transport - almost anyone can do it, anywhere. You don't even need a formed road. And velodromes don't have to be enclosed, or banked - they can even be grassed. It's that availability at low entry cost that makes both road and track cycling potentially a world-wide sport (like athletics already is) - whereas with swimming you need water. Not everyone wants to swim in their drinking water after all.

Anyway, my attention was caught by that well-known pot-hauling back-injurer, Brad McGee. He's had a tough time of late at FdJ.com and has switched to the creatively named Team CSC this year... and sponsor CSC itself has of course announced it's pulling out of pro cyclesport at the end of the year. Ooops. Now Brad was on fire at the Giro, what, 3 years ago now? And then he had a succession of injuries, the most major being the aforementioned pot-moving incident. But he's back on track, surely (pun intended):
Qualifying
1 Jenning Huizenga (Netherlands) 4.16.34 (56.174 km/h)
2 Bradley Wiggins (Great Britain) 4.17.02
3 Alexei Markov (Russian Federation) 4.18.24
4 Hayden Roulston (New Zealand) 4.18.33
5 Bradley McGee (Australia) 4.20.43
6 David O'Loughlin (Ireland) 4.20.91
7 Luke Roberts (Australia) 4.21.89
8 Taylor Phinney (United States Of America) 4.22.36
9 Antonio Tauler Llull (Spain) 4.22.65
10 Volodymyr Dyudya (Ukraine) 4.22.73
11 Alexander Serov (Russian Federation) 4.22.74
12 Dominique Cornu (Belgium) 4.22.79
13 Sergi Escobar Roure (Spain) 4.24.13
14 Jens Mouris (Netherlands) 4.24.48
15 Marc Ryan (New Zealand) 4.24.78
16 Robert Bartko (Germany) 4.25.14
17 Phillip Thuaux (Australia) 4.26.43

I'd like to jump on a track bike after quite a break and do a 4.20 over 4km. I'd be happy with a sub-6min 4km to be honest. Good on you Brad, and keep it up. You may surprise us all in Beijing. Oh yeah, the other Brad, ie Wiggins, won the final in a canter. He's almost an Aussie so it's not too bad. (BTW Phil Thuaux was about 3 seconds off his PB, so something went wrong there.)

A wrap-up of results and stuff...

Well first of all an ibike update. Battery is still good at 280V, and I finally filled the data log memory. It takes about 2 weeks of 1-1.5 hour rides. Still works fine, although I suspect that it is adjusting the altitude that I set it at as the barometer rises... that's not a huge error. I should be starting my rides at about 60m above sea level but today my local hill had grown to 175m. Hmmm. I'm getting used to riding for power measurement and remembering to minimise my coasting. I find myself sprinting downhill just to lift my average... with has crept from about 160 up to just under 190W, but if you play with your data (it's a CSV file that you can dump into a spreadsheet program like Excel or OpenOffice) and remove the zeros the average is more like 220W now, up from just under 200. That makes sense as you are really interested in what power you can develop, not how much freewheeling and downhills you can conjure up on a ride...

On other matters, like Basso's suspension and Landis's ongoing laboratory problems, there's a nice summation of where we are at here at Bicycling mag. Cofidis pro Bradley Wiggins reckons it's good for cycling to have Basso suspended (BBC report here). Meanwhile CyclingPost tells us Cunego has won Trentino again. And PEZ on how to ride a Gran Fondo is a good fun read. And lastly don't miss the fun at the Rundfahrt... Graeme Brown is in 3rd overall and has got a 2nd and a 3rd so far. CyclingNews report here.