Tuesday, July 31, 2007

The dopes who dope and why they do it

I do understand why they do it, I really do. It's simply human nature to cheat. We cheat ourselves, our families, our friends, usually to gain some advantage or to simply prove ourselves. Sometimes with real consequences, sometimes not. If you know as an athlete that you can achieve great things, know it in your heart, yet fail to deliver on the day(s) in question - be it because of poor judgement, tactics, illness or injury - you are left with a lot of 'what-ifs'. If you are open to temptation, if the EPO or other enhancing substance is available, you have a choice. And choice is what it is all about, and where we become much more black and white, good or evil about these things. Iban Mayo appears to have chosen EPO to gain, or perhaps regain, what he displayed in the Tour. He looked reborn as a rider, best he'd been in years. And now we may know why.

Vinokourov faced the same pressure, but worse; that of a favourite in possibly his last shot at the title. What if he couldn't deliver? What if he injured? What happens then?

And Rasmussen? Well he didn't test positive, he just don't look or sound honest. Or perhaps we don't know the full story? We do know he chose to train away from the spotlight and to appear to prevaricate over his location. This is not illegal, and is our perception only. He wasn't proven to have cheated, and he continues to deny it.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 21 - Bennati wins in Paris

Daniele Bennati took his 2nd Tour win just days after his first, and in the best place, too: Paris. Lampre deserved the win today after attacking and chasing so hard for Ballan, so it was somehow fitting that Quickstep, having done little to motivate the stage should accidentally lead Bennati out to the win. Boonen didn't seem to have the legs today, or was playing safe with the green jersey, just doing enough to keep it on his shoulders. Either way he didn't get to grips with his lead-out man and slipped away to 5th. Unless of course it was a cunning plan to allow Bennati the win, robbing his closer rivals of the opportunity to take maximum points...

Overall no-one threatened Contador for the win, and he took that an the best young rider. Cadel Evans took 2nd, as expected, and Leipheimer was content to stand on the podium in 3rd. It could all have been so very different had there not been several key casualties, both via accident and doping scandal. Still, this is a long race at high speed in difficult circumstances, and it wouldn't be special if winning it was straightforward, would it?

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 20 - Oh for 23 secs

It went pretty much as we all expected, although Levi got closer to Cadel than was comfy, and Alberto held on slightly better than expected - oh for those extra seconds! Still, after surviving a tour like this one it's fitting thatthe top 3 are so close, and that they have such a margin on Sastre in 4th.

Traditionally we just see a parade followed by an all-out sprint in the last stage, but we also recall Vinokourov's non-sprinter's move in 2005... so will Evans be tempted to go for a flyer? It looks like Levi has called a truce and accepted 3rd, so maybe not. If Discovery do move for a 1-2 finish then all bets are off, but surely they'll be happy with 1st and 3rd on GC? I guess that slight element of doubt will plague us all for another day...

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Oh no, not again - more rumours

I'm seeing spots. Rumours are flying about a Barloworld police raid and a rider testing positive after stage 14. Now usually this means the winner of a stage or a jersey holder, who all get tested. So is it Soler, Contador or Boonen? Or just a big beat up? If it's a jersey holder it'll come out real fast, you'd think, although hushing it up until due process is followed would not be impossible to imagine, too. Especially since we've been jumping to so many conclusions so fast lately. I can't imagine hushing up the potential winner, but another jersey could be hung out to dry later, I guess.

This story was discounted, denied, a day or so later : from CN - The speculation was further fuelled by reports of police cars at the Barloworld hotel on Friday night. "Some journalist saw an Ag2r Prévoyance team car and thought it was a police car," confirmed Prudhomme. "There was not any police at the hotel."

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 18 - Casar at last

Another stage passes and Sandy Casar finally manages to make the break, stay with the break, and win the sprint. Phew. I'm relieved, imagine how he feels.

It wasn't easy. Yes, the bunch wasn't too concerned about the break gaining time, but we also had another dog episode that took out Casar for a moment and cost Willems a spot in the break. We also had an entertaining roundabout where Casar did what I would call 'an Anderson' and went the wrong way, deliberately, and initiated the final, decisive move. Merkcx almost mowed him down but Casar's kick held him off until the line. Phew again.

Evans also showed that he could stay with the big bad sprinters when they rolled into town, something that Contador either couldn't or didn't want to do, costing both Alberto and Levi 3 seconds to Cadel. That's 3 secs in the pocket for tomorrow's (or today's, if you prefer) TT. Cadel looks fresher but both Contador and Leipheimer will be going for the 1-2 finish, so
freshest legs and best luck rule from here. No rain, and no falls please. No punctures either, thanks.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Gerrans changes sides

CyclingNews reports that Simon Gerrans is leaving one French ProTour team for another. The AG2r Prévoyance rider, who is currently contesting the Tour de France with the squad, has signed a one-year contract with Roger Legeay's Crédit Agricole... ... at least he's used to the language. CA was also Stuey O'Grady's old stomping ground.

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 17 - Bennati wins in a break

Daniele Bennati won easily, as you'd expect from a fast-twitch guy in a break laden with more your enduro-power guys. Voigt did his usual instigation and control act, forcing the pace when it needed forcing, leaving gaps that slackers had to fill and attacking when the odds needed improving. The only thing he couldn't do was get away from Benna, who knew what was on Voigt's seemingly transparent mind at every step. Voigt needed to gap Bennati enough that he couldn't close, but the sprinter of course knew this as well and fast-twitched his way back onto the wheel every time. It didn't help that the final selection included guys who were pretty similar in style and power to Voigt himself, making the match a bit too even. Even picking the weakest link and attacking up that hill at 4km didn't work... although it was close and a few cramps in the right legs would have sealed the escape. Alas, these guys don't cramp, or hide it well.

Which means one down, one to go. Before the all-resolving TT, I mean. Can Cadel make up 1m 53secs on Contador? I doubt it. The course is flat, which doesn't suit either of them, although Evans may have a little more gas left than Alberto. Leaping Levi could do better than both at this course and will be fired up to close the 53sec gap on Cadel. It's looking like a close thing all round. Perhaps Contador loses a minute to Cadel and Levi gains 30 secs, or more. Or variations on that theme, anyway. They'll end up soooo close together it'll come down to freshest legs and most luck on the day.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Good news - take 2

Now it's Karl Menzies taking the lead at the scandal-free Tour de Toona.

And Emma Rickards leads the Thuringen-Rundfahrt for women.

Did I mention that the Tour de France is still on? In a manner of speaking, anyway. A race of phantoms, it seems.

YES! Rasmussen is OUT!

I said I was uneasy.. but I feel a bit better now. Not 100% but at least 95% confident that the playing field is levelling... it's like pulling teeth, without anaesthetic.

I'm not saying Rasmussen is guilty, or Vinokourov, or even Landis for that matter. I'm not saying that at all.

What I am saying is that I'm pleased to see tough, consistent action taken - finally - when things are not as they should be. The waters are murky. It doesn't look right when riders perform 'out of their skin', especially so when past performances don't stack up against current heroics. Let alone when they are surrounded by the rumours and innuendo that attach to these people. Anyone can see it, feel it, smell it. It's one thing to be a champion, another to be deceitful or just unhelpful. When lack of cooperation or openness clouds an issue we naturally smell a rat, and in this case we finally have rat catchers who mean business. This sort of open, clear and decisive action - at any immediate cost to the team, the race or to the sport itself - should happen in all sports, or not at all. Either legalise and control the doping or cut it out. At this level of importance, where people are influenced to do things that may compromise their health or longevity, where people are deceitful and manipulative and their objectives unspoken, everyone suffers. The cheater and the cheated. And the manipulators and profiteers who lurk unseen behind the cheats should suffer the consequences, too.

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 16 - Chicken flies coop

I don't know how I feel about this. Uneasy? Disturbed? Queasy? I can accept that riders improve, their fitness and abilities change over time and their knowledge and execution of tactics increase. But Michael Rasmussen made it look just too easy. I'm sure it was tough. Evans looked cooked. Sastre obviously had a red hot go; and Contador was clearly motivated. Yet Rasmussen seemed effortless at times. He's obviously biologically superior on these long steep inclines. Even the lamented Pantani looked as they he was making an effort when he made his presumably EPO-fueled ascents. Yet I know that whatever grade of racing you do there is always someone who has saved a bit more at the end; someone who has trained a bit smarter, or harder; someone who just wants it more. Rasmussen is just one of those guys.

So good on him, great win. Yet somehow I feel better about Evans clinging to third place. He looked as if he was trying and he clearly was outnumbered. What could he do when Rabo had a great team behind the Chicken and Contador had super-domestique Leipheimer? Attack them both and somehow match their counter-attacks? I know that doesn't work, or work for long.

So there you have it. 2 road stages left to play with, one of which offers a chance of some breakaways but little hope of a big escape. It will be locked down tight as a drum by Rabo and Disco. And Lotto will hang tough. And then the TT, where some change will occur. Evans has a shot at winning the stage but so do several others. Will Evans gain or lose time to Leipheimer? Will someone do something extra-ordinary? Or maybe extra-terrestrial?

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The good news

Now for some good news?
  • Allan Davis (as expected) won the final stage of the Qinghai tour. Plenty of Aussies finished this hard, high-altitude race, too, as this pic attests. Rhys Pollck was best placed Aussie overall
  • Aussie-laden HealthNet-Maxxis won the Tour de Toona TTT (helps to have Nathan O'Neill on the team, let alone Karl Menzies and Rory Sutherland...).

Le Tour de Disaster 2007

What can one say? Vinokourov has been painted black by an A-test and he and his team are sent home. So, like Landis et al it's not "proven" that he homologously transfused (is that real or did I make it up?) but it looks so much like he did that "we" really can't risk it. (One thought - did he have a transfusion in hospital after that fall? Surely if he did that'd be too obvious to overlook.) Plenty of people have expressed surprise that a rider of such class should bother to cheat but...
  1. We are dealing with an entrenched culture of drug-enhanced racing going back at least 30 years, probably 50 - I think we all understand that, don't we? I'm sure it's the same in other sports, if not in most people's everyday culture of alcohol and caffeine-driven lives!
  2. Like Landis and his worn-out hip last year (not that I'm saying Landis is guilty as charged, as it's still not proven) this is probably his last shot at winning Le Tour - so there's a lot at stake personally
  3. Vino was a contender apparently knocked out of contention by injury - and it's always tempting to use anything to overcome the unfairness of such luckless injury
  4. He's human and can succumb to temptation just like anyone else.
Yesterday when writing about Vinokourov's amazing comeback I said "go figure". Well I guess we just figured it out. I also expressed puzzlement over Rasmussen's amazing TT performance as well as Valverde's inability to reproduce his past form. Now I fully understand that riders can train and enhance aspects of their riding by sheer effort and practice, and Rasmussen is no exception to that rule - so it's unfair to suggest that he has done anything untoward, despite the latest allegations. It's still a puzzle to me that he did so well - and can't wait to see what he does in the next TT. As for Valverde I know equally as well how hard it is to maintain form and peak at the right time whilst avoiding illness and injury, but it is always notable when highly talented riders appear to lose form at the wrong time. I just hope my puzzlement over such reverses in fortune are based on natural causes alone.

iBike update (again)

You remember I bought an iBike? How could you forget?

You can search this blog and find the whole story but in short it's a one-wire, one-external-sensor black box (it's actually white) that uses variables like velocity, acceleration and altitude change coupled with your own choice of constants (weight, friction and aerodynamic co-efficients) to calculate power. It dumps all of that data into a reader and you can play with the .CSV file in any spreadsheet.
  • The pros are that it's the cheapest option for constant (ie not just hills) power measurement and it's as easy to mount as a speedo (making it easy to swap bikes, too).
  • The cons are that the constants aren't really constant. Your weight changes as you sweat and eat (but not by much, unless you are riding 200km/day and not refueling); your aerodynamics change as you sit up or crouch down (but you can adjust your aerodynamic constant to be a 'best fit' for your needs), or just sit in a draft (and yes, it does give some strange results when drafting big bunches or trucks). And your friction changes according to tyre pressure and road surface (but again, not by much).
So it simply can't compete for spot-on, every-day accuracy with SRM or PowerTap, but beats both on price. And if you are prepared to accept and work around the cons then it's still a remarkably useful device for training. After trying all of the 'tweaking' options I've settled on a 'best practices' guide that works for me. I'll share that soon, but here are some tips:
  • Batteries... buy a few CR2032's for spares... they can last a 2 months or 2 weeks, depending upon sample rate and time on each ride
  • Some batteries drop below the recommended 2.75V on ride 2 - but bounce back on ride 3! So don't chuck it away too smartly
  • But be careful, too, as you risk losing all ride data and probably getting spurious results with a low battery, but...
  • I've had no obvious problem starting a 1-2 hour ride with voltages as low as 2.66V.. and it even ended the ride back at 2.72V

More later!

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 15 - Vino tries again

What can I say? It's exhausting enough (as an Antipodean) staying up so late to see the finish to then contemplate what actually happened. Vino, who was a contender until he had a bad fall, but who recovered from those injuries to look as though he was fighting back, took a massive win in the TT - and it looked like race on. But then it was race off as he lost so much time in the first big Pyrenean test. But then he bounces back to take the Queen stage! Go figure!

Rasmussen is equally puzzling. Obviously a mountain goat, he was expected to get at least the spotted jersey and yellow was not that surprising. But to limit his losses in the TT - and catch Valverde - was, well, hard to take after last years disaster!

And Valverde? Well he obviously isn't up to the stratospheric heights we thought he was at... and Contador clearly is. Now we knew Alberto had fantastic acceleration on the climbs but - really - that was an amazing display of 'catch me if you can'. How Rasmussen managed to fight back and get on terms again was impressive. So the race is between Rasmussen and Contador. Will Chicken crack? Will Contador take control on the last mountain stage but lose out in the TT? Who will have any legs left for the TT anyway?

Before I go I have to say bravo Evans. To fight it out in these mountains with no teammates left at critical times is impressive indeed. Surely someone will want to lure him away from Lotto? Imagine if he had a team dedicated to supporting him and bridging gaps in the high country, giving him the chance to play the old one-two, too. Imagine. Well, he still could pull out a big TT and Chicken could return to TT non-form. Anything could still happen, and probably will.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 14 - Contador climbs to win

In summary, Contador had a lot to gain and set about doing it, with the help of Leipheimer and co. Yellow jersey holder Rasmussen tacked on the back and stayed there, and Cadel Evans did likewise until just before the finale. Valverde stumbled badly and Vino was shattered, both of them losing a lot of time. For Vinokourov it's the end of this year's GC challenge. So Contador won over Rasmussen, but the Chicken had proven himself equal to the challenge and he didn't fret any feathers over missing the win. Evans was just off the final, brutal pace and ended up back with Kloden. For Evans it's time lost, for Contador a significant step forward and for Rasmussen, respect.

The top nine are now Michael Rasmussen first on GC and looking good for Paris. He just has to keep consolidating in the climbs, build on that lead and survive the next TT. It's do-able but he'd expect to lose at least 1-2 minutes in that TT, so he needs that buffer desperately.

Alberto Contador is next and stands a great chance to take the overall, if he can keep this level of attacking climbing up and not lose too much time in the TT. Realistically he's young but strong - if he fades it won't be a surprise - but if doesn't win this year watch out for the future.

After Contador comes Cadel Evans who faded and lost a minute and a place today. He needs to dig deep now and not lose any more time. He proved his TT prowess is the equal or better of all of these top 5 riders, so a motivated final TT could still see him grab the overall prize. After one slightly disappointing Pyrenean stage it's too early to write him off but it was a test and he fell slightly short. Having teammates to help him would have made a difference, but he will face the same problem in stage 15.. and it's a big stage. He could lose more time, or Rasmussen and Contador could crack first.

Leaping Levi Leipheimer has lept up to 4th and is gunning for Cadel's spot. It's a tough ask but with team mate Contador to play with it's game on. Kloden and Sastre follow Leipheimer and pose a threat to both Evans and Leipheimer. Either could pull one out of the bag in the mountains and Kloden especially could take back some time in the TT. It's probably too late for Valverde who has slipped to 9th place, almost 10 minutes back.

So, will it be fireworks in Stage 15? Will Rasmussen and Contador go hammer and tongs again or will they suffer from some pretty big efforts in the last few days? Will someone out of overall contention take a long break and get well clear, leaving the GC battlers to fight it out decisively on one big climb? Or will they batten down the hatches and play it cool?

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 13 - Chicken off the menu

For now, anyway. The Albi TT showed that Michael 'Chicken' Rasmussen has wings - and flew to an impressive extent. Not enough to win, mind - Vino proved he was the fastest as well as the toughest today - but enough to stave off Evans and Kloden. Chicken thus retains yellow and has to defend it in the Pyrenees.

So what happens now? Vino's and Kloden's Astana team is well placed to attack Rasmussen, as is Contador's and Leipheimer's Disco crew. Sandwiched in between is Cadel Evans, who has little option but to follow the moves. He could attack - but there's no second chances.. whereas both Disco and Astana do have 2nd options to play.

But there's also another TT after the mountains - and whilst Rasmussen has demonstrated improved TT performance he also showed that it's not enough - he'll still lose time, and he only has a minute up on Evans, who was 2nd in today's TT. So he must attack and put time on everyone within striking distance, especially Kloden and Evans but also Contador.

Which will be interesting. Who will attack first? Who will roll the dice and try their luck. An interesting week of racing awaits us...

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 12 - Boonen bags another win

Well it had to happen - the long break got chased down in the last kilometre and the Quickstep train fired up perfectly. When the Steegmans express left the station he had Big Tom on board and this time it went perfectly to plan... Boonen obviously thinks he looks good in green, up he was very lucky that no-one lit up the stage on the cat 2 climb. He won't be so lucky in the Pyreenees.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 11 - Robbie Hunter hunts down a win

Well he had to win eventually, especially with that other Robbie out of the frame and Boonen down in a fall. Nice to see Cancellara continuing to 'have a go', too. The lesson of the day is 'don't give up'. The other lesson is 'go hard'. The breaks happened when the pace was continually forced - the winner's time meaning a very fast 48km/h average over the 180-plus kilometres. Given the pace, the crashes and the crosswinds it was inevitable the elastic would break, and it did. With the splits in the peleton tactics became confused and gaps grew.

Those who lost out were some of the sprinters, like Hushovd and Zabel, and overall contender Moreau, who lost time after a crash and broken cleat. Of course it was bad timing - especially so as Astana chose that moment to attack - and some were upset about it, not least of all being Moreau. But that's racing. It's a funny thing, these team radios - you'd think they'd communicate something like 'Moreau in crash, do the respectful thing and wait for him to bridge back' but instead it seems they fall back on 'but we didn't even know he was dropped'. Now if we didn't have these rider radios that'd be true, but we do.. so it was 'that's racing', wasn't it?

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Other races, other places...

Nice win for Karl Menzies at Superweek, where Karl leads and Jonathan Clarke is in 2nd overall.

And Allan Davis has pulled off another sprint win in the Qinghai tour. That's 3 so far...

Le Tour de France 2007 - Stage 10 - 10 out of 10

Cedric Vasseur won in a break that ended in a 5 man sprint. It toook a lot of time and courage to get that far, and both luck and good judgement to come from way back and anticipate the sprint perfectly. In fact it was a 10. 10 centimetres separated Vasseur from unlucky 2nd place Casar. 10 years since his last Tour win. And his 10th Tour.

Otherwise it's all as normal. The Dane leads overall but gained no time, so he will likely lose the yellow fleece in the next TT - unless he springs an immortal surprise. Those guaranteed time losses for Chicken will be a win of course for Valverde and Evans, both of whom will pick up the time that Rasmussen loses. Or someone further back will blitz the TT (perhaps Kloden?), and both Evans and Valverde will crack, or worse, crash. Kloden and Leipheimer will both gain time, as will Menchov. The post-TT landscape may look like Valverde 1st, Evans 2nd, Rasmussen 3rd, then Kloden, Leipheimer and maybe Menchov. Or maybe not. Perhaps Sastre will slip in between, or Moreau. Mayo will drop back.

We'll have to wait. Mark Stage 13 in your diaries and watch it. It will be compelling. And then onto the Pyrenees, where it all changes again.