Monday, July 02, 2012

Well they still look happy enough - Le Tour 2012

The usual falls, mad roadside furniture, a stray photographer and Jens smiling, waving. And then that finish! Now that was exciting.

So RadioShack-Nissan are still full of beans, basking in the glory of Spartacus. And when Fabian finally runs out of steam, probably on a mountain later this week, most likely on Stage 7, what happens then? Will Kloden get his chance to lead? Or will Frank have clawed his way back? But if Cancellara survives the attacks up La Planche Des Belles Filles (possible, since the opportunists and the GC guys playing catch-up will likely seize upon it, rather than those closest on GC) he'll probably get over the next day's bumps, too. But will he pay a price during the following 41km ITT? Or will it open up his lead even further?

It will still be too early for most of the top GC guys, so I'm betting he'll still be there, in yellow. Having said that, he will have to decide how he manages his energy loss over stages 7 and 8. If an opportunist (and it could even be a GC guy like Evans) takes a risk on Stage 7 then Cancellara's lead will quickly dissolve. So will he chase and defend, or let it go? And maybe even get it back in the ITT? Yellow is yellow, after all. He'll fight.

There's a rest day after the ITT, and then a shock to the system as Stage 10 will be the first real climbers' stage. If Cancellara gets this far then he will want to have a big lead, as it will be whittled away quickly enough as the real climbers take advantage. And surely they'll have a go. Surely! (And he can't possibly survive Stage 11!)

Tour De France 2012: Stage 1 Results |
1 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas-Cannondale 4:58:19 Expected, really
2 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan Not unexpected. He was always going to try.
3 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling
Expected, really
4 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team Expected, really, even if he is having an ordinary season so far... had this been 2011 it would've been his stage to win
5 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team Good ride.
6 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team
Expected, but slighly disappointing, it really should have been his stage!
7 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team Expected, really
8 Daniel Martin (Irl) Garmin - Sharp I guess it's no surprise
9 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Sharp Fresher, perhaps, than we thought?
10 Dries Devenyns (Bel) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Another good ride.
11 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto Belisol Team
Expected, really
12 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Expected, really
13 Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected, really
14 Samuel Dumoulin (Fra) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne Expected, really
15 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale Expected, really
16 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling Expected, really
20 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team Expected, really, and another likely winner had Cancellara not charged like a bull
22 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling Nice recovery after a fall
34 Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan Frank's back!
35 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan And Andreas is hangin' with Frank!