Le Tour 2012: how to lose at the start - or hey, it's only the prologue!

Perhaps this Tour was lost weeks ago, maybe even years ago. As I have your attention now (both of us, me and you) let me explain. Kinda.

This is the hypothesis: what goes around comes around. Simple. When things look extraterrestrial, maybe they are. It's not news to say that there are clouds hanging over some past performances at Le Tour (amongst other races) and - perhaps - it's all coming to a head. Or a beheading. There are riders and managers past and present hoping it all comes to nought. They may have nothing to fear but they still fear it in their bones. Or blood. It still has an effect. It rattles a few things, and focus is lost. And riders make mistakes, or lose form. And then there are aftershocks, pay disputes and general unhappiness. You know what I mean. Morale is damaged.

And there's more to the hypothesis, too: you are where you came from. Wiggins for example is a pursuit guy, a trackie used to smooth, fast velodromes. Yes, as are many other great road cyclists. But some of that basic training hangs around and whilst he's made a huge improvement on the road he still has to match the great descenders and tactical guys. Can he gain enough in the mountains and TTs to give up some time elsewhere?   

So what do I (club-level crit racer that I am) reckon the GC will look like in Paris? Well Wiggo, Evans and Menchov look good but you can't write Nibali out, either. Hesjedal? He'll give it a shot but his best tactic will be to look exhausted (from his Giro win), hang tough, stay close and pull out a surprise or 2 late in the race. But they all know to expect that. Wiggo, as I said, will take time in the mountains and TTs but may lose a bit to opportunists and descenders. Evans will just do what Evans does, hang in there, cling to Wiggo et al and just stay close enough to strike if he can. An opportunistic attack on a wet downhill may be his best tactic. However unless Wiggo cracks his strong TT will not be enough. He's not facing the Schlecks this time, is he? (Well not judging by Frank's performance so far - unless he has a miracle mountain ride up his sleeve.)

Of course it's a long race, of course anything can happen. To survive week one is hard enough, but then to attack or to match the attackers, that is the question. It may come down to who keeps the most energy and best form all the way through 4 weeks. It may depend on crashes, viruses, or one or 2 smart attacks on just the right days. Or it may play out exactly as expected. But I doubt it.  

So on with the show, this is it (summarised and commented, of course):

Tour De France 2012: Prologue Results | Cyclingnews.com

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 0:07:13  Expected but a pleasant surprise to see confirmation - he's back. Fabian will hang onto the yellow until it makes no more sense for him or the team. He's done good, but where are the 'Shack's GC guys?
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07 Expected. On form, done good. Used to be a TT specialist, despite obvious improvements elsewhere it remains to be seen how he copes with mountain descents in the wet, or the pressure of favoritism. Still, deserves to be the GC fave.
3 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-QuickStep Great ride, Chavanel will steal a stage or 2, surely?
4 Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10 Again, rode out of his skin. A boost to BMC and a hopeful sign of strong support for GC man Evans.
5 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:11 Expected. Wiggins has support, too.
6 Brett Lancaster (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
7 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) Argos - Shimano 0:00:12 Perhaps unexpected? Obviously a good result.
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13 Expected. A welcome return to form, deserves a break this year. Must be counted for the GC podium in Paris.
9 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) BMC Racing Team Coming on strong at exactly the right time. Watch this space. Again a comfort to Evans to have another powerhouse on his side.
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:00:15 Expected.
11 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:16 Expected. Another Wiggo support man.
12 Peter Velits (Svk) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:17 Expected.
13 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team Expected. He's not a TT specialist, although he does great TTs, especially long ones. He's managed his loss to just a few seconds, so he's in the game.
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:18 Like Evans he's done his job. Expected. Wiggo-Evans-Menchov for the podium, Nibali a close 4th? Maybe. It's a cliche but it's true - anything can happen from here. Expect an exciting week 3 if these 4 are still on the same page.
15 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Sharp Expected. OK, make that 5. It's a tough call to expect Hesjedal to back up after his epic Giro, so I'll say "not this time".
16 David Millar (GBr) Garmin - Sharp Expected.
17 Stephen Cummings (GBr) BMC Racing Team Great ride. More support for Cadel.
18 Jens Voigt (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:19 Expected. Always there, isn't he? But he's not the 'Shack leader, is he? Maybe it's the next guy?
19 Andreas Klöden (Ger) RadioShack-Nissan Expected. Definitely in the game and if he's called upon to race like a leader and gets the support he's got the class to surprise... but then again, it's a big ask at the wrong end of a famous career, so maybe not.
20 Nick Nuyens (Bel) Team Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank 0:00:20 Expected.
21 Michael Albasini (Swi) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team Expected.
22 George Hincapie (USA) BMC Racing Team Expected and good to see Cadel's support around him after this short test. But it's the long game that matters.
skip a few
30 Tyler Farrar (USA) Garmin - Sharp Expected, but perhaps he should have been a few places higher. We shall see how he sprints.
skip some more
36 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected, but again he's not as far up as we might have hoped. Will have saved something for Wiggo's support in the mountains, I suspect.
skip again
41 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling Expected. But a good ride nonetheless. Makes it look a good contest between Cav and Farrar in the sprints, methinks.
43 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Belisol Team Expected. Make that a 3-way race for Green. 
45 Tony Martin (Ger) Omega Pharma-QuickStep A good ride but he should have won - a bike change drama slowed him down. Revenge will be sweet, later.
53 Peter Sagan (Svk) Liquigas-Cannondale Oh dear, a bit less than expected. Missed a corner, pulled his foot? Whatever, he'll be back. Make it a 4-way race for Green.
61 Michael Rogers (Aus) Sky Procycling Expected. He's not a short TT guy and like Porte he'll be supporting Wiggo later.
69 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Sharp Not that far off but slower than expected.
80 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Omega Pharma-QuickStep First GC guy to miss a trick, perhaps, but he's really here to support VDB... but where's VDB? Still, it's a lot of time to lose in the prologue. 
87 Matthew Harley Goss (Aus) Orica GreenEdge Cycling Team No GC ambitions but can Gossy match it with the 4 sprinters above him? We shall see.
90 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale Ouch. It's OK, he's a support guy for Nibali this year. Calm down. 
Skipping a few more
113 Christopher Horner (USA) RadioShack-Nissan Obviously saving himself.
And the rest. They all have their jobs to do.

Oh, what about Frank? Theory A. is that he's fried after a strong run a month or so back. Theory B is that he's going to pull a surprise. Theory C is that he'll support Andreas instead. They are professionals, they'll get over the dramas. Or not. 

136
Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan. No chance from this far back, really, unless he is hiding stellar climbing form and cracks the lot of 'em in the mountains. It'll be fun to see him try, anyway. Or will he simply support Andreas?  

On to Stage 1, I guess.

Nice work by Durbridge, Hepburn, Allen at road world champs. Blurred vision and up over the footpath

It's not just that they are Aussies, it's the style in which they have claimed their medals, too.

Durbridge's blurred vision on lap 1 says it all. Any athlete who has pushed themselves to their limit knows the feeling. Personally I - lowly clubbie that I am - found it easier to achieve on the track in a 1km time trial or 4km pursuit, although I've had it happen on the road when I've been coming back from injury or illness and have tried just a bit too hard to keep up with faster guys or gals in the hills. For the uninitiated it's unnerving and just a little unsafe. You go a bit light-headed and the vision strays a bit. It's a struggle to keep both eyes focused on the one spot. I'm sure many people hold back at that point, if they reach it at all. If you go further then you get the "seeing stars" effect and a general dimming of the lights. Your legs lose their power and you feel all over the place. Now you've gone too deep. (Don't even try it without many months of serious training. And don't blame me if you push your body over the edge and can't come back.)  

UCI Road World Championships: U23 Men Time Trial, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

"About a lap in, I was 20 seconds up and then 25 seconds. James (from the team car) told me to keep concentrating and I had little bit of blurred vision because I started fast. But the course suited me and it was just about grinding it out on the flat. In the last 10km, I started to enjoy it. I knew I was up and only had to stay up and bring it home."

Hepburn also had a go, but demonstrated another side of pushing the limits:

UCI Road World Championships: U23 Men Time Trial, Route Maps & Results | Cyclingnews.com

Michael Hepburn of Australia was also favoured for a medal, and set a new best time halfway time. But he appeared to be pushing too hard, one time going up on a pavement after a turn. The final blow came when he took a left hand turn too fast, had his front wheel slip away and down he went. A ripped kit was not the least of his worries, as he had to change bikes as well.

Still, a bronze ain't bad and he certainly got noticed. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. You aim to be fast and smooth but you get fast and ragged instead. One off-line corner leads to a worse one until you are way off course and up on the footpath, or hard on the brakes. Or on the ground.

Nice job by Allen, too:

Allen wins gold for Australia at road world titles : Cycling Central on SBS

Jessica Allen opened Australia’s medal count at the 2011 UCI Road World Championships​ winning gold in the junior women’s time trial.

And that was just day one.

Armstrong wants more power, less speed?

That's what I think I read: Armstrong is not necessarily looking for the position that will make the bike the fastest. "It has to be a perfect mix between position and power. If I am five percent slower due to the position, but have 25 percent more power, than that will be better."

Now he may be misquoted. He may be confused, or quoted out of context. Or he's being silly. Perhaps he meant that the 'fastest' position wasn't necessarily the most comfortable and sustainable, which is fine. Perhaps he meant that the most aerodynamic position wasn't necessarily the best overall, for whatever reason. But why the heck say that he'd compromise speed for 'more power'? Wouldn't less power and more speed be even better than the reverse? What use is the extra power if it doesn't increase his speed?

Please explain!

Peter Milostic snatches Peter McDonald's ATTA NSW record

Worth posting in full, this is a significant local TT record for Sydney and Central Coast riders... from the Impact Cycling forum: Peter Milostic snatches Peter McDonald’s ATTA NSW record On the first Sunday of every month, ATTA NSW conducts Time Trials at the famous Calga circuit. On the 4th of November Peter Milostic turned up to attack Peter McDonald’s impressive sub 1 hour record for the undulating 43km course. Unfortunately the gods of time trialing did not smile on the Penrith rider as he punctured in the last 5km and limped in with a notably impressive time of 1hour 1min and 33 seconds. One month later on the first Sunday of December Milostic returned, determined to crack the seemingly unbreakable record. This time he left nothing to chance bringing his wife with spare wheels, spare bike and his coach Mick Chapman, with laptop and lactate testing kits. Peter signed on as number 58 giving him over an hour of warm up which he did on the rollers. Many of the ATTA regulars heads were turning as the high pitched whirr of yet another of Peter’s intensive intervals echoed over the otherwise relaxed start area. For many years (2003- 2007) the ATTA 43km record has been the domain of three Sydney riders Adam Conquest (Randwick Botany CC), David Rae (Marconi CC) and Tom Brooks (Parramatta CC). The trio regularly upped each other, collecting the ATTA $100 prize for any new record. That was until May 2007 when Peter McDonald (FRF NSWIS) turned up to Calga fresh off an impressive ride in the Canberra tour where he came 2nd in the TT and wore the leader’s jersey for one day. Peter smashed Adam Conquest’s record time of 1hr 02 min 11 sec by 2 minutes 17 seconds setting the seemingly unbreakable time of 59:54. Milostic started his mission at 8:58am under a patchy sky with a slight North /Easterly and an ambient temperature of 20 degrees. He was almost poetic on his outward journey powering over every climb in his aerodynamic time trial position. He hit the Somersby turnaround in an amazing sub 29 minute time, which was significantly faster than McDonald’s record time. The plan started to go pear shaped towards the end of his return trip and he was spotted struggling over the notorious Blood Hill however, once over the killer climb, Milostic recomposed himself quickly and powered home to stop the clock at 59 minutes and 34 seconds. The presentation of the ATTA record trophy and $100 cash was conducted by Chris Greeves in front of gob smacked ATTA riders who applauded loudly for the new champion. Within moments of Peter crossing the line an ATTA official was SMS’ing Peter McDonald to inform him of his broken record. In a post presentation interview Milostic expressed his pleasure of beating the record and his intentions of using the event for the coming months to gauge his performance. He was excited at the prospect of a duel between him and McDonald in lowering this prestigious record. December was also the first week of the new “Personal Best (PB) ride Scheme” whereby after a rider establishes 2 rides on the same course, any rider who betters their PB will be rewarded with a free entry for the next calendar event. Results have been kept on a data base for every event since mid 2005. You can find out your PB at the ATTA NSW start line. ATTA NSW conducts Time Trials on the first Sunday of each month rain,hail or shine. http://www.atta.asn.au/

Some more about wheels... and airflow

My friend, he with the Six13 and Lapierre, went on to say, "Yeah, but the more I thought about the test (see my previous post) the more I question the relevance. Most of the top tyres and almost all of the aero tyres were tubulars. How would the stiffness compare on the equivalent clincher? You can get clincher Ritchey WCS carbons for instance. They didn't use that many top end clinchers in the end, I would've liked to have seen Easton's top clincher in there."

To which I would say that clinchers are by design not as stiff, certainly laterally but in every way, as a tubular (ie glue on) rim, whether made of carbon or not. It's stiff by design, being a closed loop, whereas a U-shaped rim can bend more easily.

Undaunted, he went on: "What has me thinking is the front to rear stiffness difference in the Campy Eurus. I do talk about the freaky handling of the Lap, but maybe it was the wheels?"

Which had me thinking about my old Campag 24 spokers. Light, great for climbing, but hopeless in corners. Just too soft laterally (it felt it was laced with spaghetti spokes, cooked ones). Sometimes a bit more weight (as in more spokes) is worth it - again it's horses for courses.

My friend also commented that "the R560 Shimano does pretty well, considering it's their 105 spec wheel. Just shows how far Shimano have come with their wheels and they definately are the best value wheel on the market at the moment."

Probably a good call. I still like Mavics. Those sealed bearings last a long time (mine have lasted 16 years without a failure, and with minimal maintenance).

He also "thought the 50kph (test) was a bit extreme, but I did like that they tested a variety of angles, something that you question when you see the Cervelo Soloist design... surely it can't be that good at anything except straight on (ish)?" Of course on a bike you tend to go forward (hopefully!) so you are always penetrating the air straight on, so the Soloist does make sense. It also has a greater side profile surface area so maybe it is susceptible to crosswinds, but I have trouble in 40-60knot crosswinds on my regular bikes, so maybe it's just a matter of degree?